Heating, Air Conditioning, and Refrigeration Mechanic and Installer Salary in Fairfax, VA: $55,678 (2026)
Quick Answer:A full-time heating, air conditioning, and refrigeration mechanic and installer in Fairfax, VA earns a median $55,678/year (≈ $26.76/hour) in nominal terms for 2026 — projected from BLS OEWS 2025 (SOC 49-9021). Once you factor in Fairfax's price level (3% above national, BEA RPP 103.2), that paycheck buys what $53,952 would nationally. Nominal pay sits 4.5% below the Virginia state average.
Based on BLS state-level estimates · View source
In Fairfax, Virginia, the projected 2026 median annual salary for heating, air conditioning, and refrigeration mechanics and installers is $55,678, which reflects a slight decline of 7.47% compared to the national median salary of $60,174 for the same year. The local salary range spans from $37,969 at the 10th percentile to $81,386 at the 90th percentile, highlighting significant earning potential based on experience and specialty. These figures derive from estimates based on 2025 BLS data and regional price adjustments, indicating the ongoing demand for skilled technicians in an evolving market driven by the heat pump installation boom and IRA tax credit incentives. As market growth focuses on eco-friendly technologies and energy-efficient installations, employers in Fairfax are likely to seek mechanics who are adaptable and well-trained in the latest HVAC innovations.
About the Fairfax Market
Salary estimated from Virginia average ($56,000) adjusted for local cost of living.
Salary Breakdown
| Percentile | Annual | Hourly |
|---|---|---|
| Entry Level (P10) | $37,969 | $18.25 |
| Lower Range (P25) | $44,602 | $21.44 |
| Median (P50)(typical) | $55,678 | $26.76 |
| Upper Range (P75) | $68,242 | $32.81 |
| Top Earners (P90) | $81,386 | $39.13 |
Median Salary Position
7.47% below the national average
2026 Salary Percentile Distribution in Fairfax
In Fairfax, VA, the heating, air conditioning, and refrigeration mechanic and installer salary spread from the 10th to 90th percentile is $43,417 (2026 est.). At $55,678, the local median is 7.47% below the national median of $60,174.
Salary Calculator
At 40 hours/week in Fairfax: You'd be in the lower-middle range
How Fairfax Heating, Air Conditioning, and Refrigeration Mechanic and Installer Pay Compares
Fairfax median: $55,678/year (2026)
| Compared To | Median Salary | Fairfax Pays |
|---|---|---|
| Virginia Average | $58,301 | -4.50% less |
| National Average | $60,174 | -7.47% less |
Heating, Air Conditioning, and Refrigeration Mechanic and Installers in Fairfax, VA earn a median of $55,678 per year (2026 est.), which is 7.47% lower than the national median of $60,174 and 4.50% below the Virginia state average of $58,301.
Cost-of-Living Adjusted Salary
Fairfax has a cost of living 3.20% above the national average.
Adjusted salary = nominal × (100 / CoL index). CoL index: 100 = national average.
Fairfax, VA has a cost-of-living index of 103.2 (above the national average of 100). While the nominal salary of $55,678 is competitive, the higher cost of living reduces purchasing power to an effective $53,952 — a 3.1% reduction.
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2019 BLS Actual
$42,835
2025 BLS Actual
$53,629
2026 Current Est.
$55,678
2019–2027 Growth
+34.9%
Salary Trajectory for Heating, Air Conditioning, and Refrigeration Mechanics and Installers in Fairfax (2019–2027)
2019–2025: actual BLS OEWS data for this metro area. 2026+: CAGR 3.82% projection.
| Year | Annual Salary | Status |
|---|---|---|
| 2019 | $42,835 | Actual |
| 2020 | $44,470 | Actual |
| 2021 | $42,747 | Actual |
| 2022 | $45,173 | Actual |
| 2023 | $50,368 | Actual |
| 2024 | $55,174 | Actual |
| 2025 | $53,629 | Actual |
| 2026(current) | $55,678 | Estimated |
| 2027 | $57,805 | Projected |
Based on 7 years of BLS OEWS data for the Fairfax metropolitan area, the median heating, air conditioning, and refrigeration mechanic and installer salary grew 25.2% from $42,835 (2019) to $53,629 (2025). At a 3.82% compound annual growth rate, salaries are projected to reach $57,805 by 2027 — a total increase of $14,970 (34.95%) from 2019.
Note: Historical values (2019–2025) are actual BLS OEWS figures for the Fairfax metropolitan area, sourced from annual Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics surveys. 2026–2026 figures are current estimates, and 2027 values are projections, calculated using a 3.82% CAGR derived from 7-year BLS historical data. Actual salaries may vary based on employer, experience, certifications, and local market conditions.
Salary by Experience Level
| Experience | Estimated Salary Range |
|---|---|
| 0-2 years (New Graduate) | $37,969 – $44,602 |
| 3-5 years (Mid Career) | $44,602 – $55,678 |
| 5+ years (Experienced) | $55,678 – $68,242 |
| 10+ years (Top Earner) | $68,242 – $81,386 |
HACR salary ranges estimated from BLS percentile data. Individual heating, air conditioning, and refrigeration mechanic and installer compensation varies by employer, certifications, and specialization.
Heating, Air Conditioning, and Refrigeration Mechanic and Installer Job Market in Fairfax
The job market for heating, air conditioning, and refrigeration mechanics and installers in Fairfax remains solid, with only four professionals currently employed in the area. The cost-of-living index of 103.2 underscores the higher expenses associated with living in Fairfax, affecting overall purchasing power. Employers in this region vary significantly in pay structure, with commercial HVAC contractors and large data center operations often providing more stable compensation compared to residential service companies that typically involve commission structures. Variable salaries can reflect differing specialties; those skilled in high-demand areas such as data center precision cooling or commercial controls tend to earn significantly more. To maximize earnings in this competitive market, technicians should focus on obtaining state contractor licenses, pursuing brand-specific certifications such as NATE or Carrier Distinguished Dealer status, and staying informed of the latest trends in heat pump technology and energy-efficient systems.
More salary data for Fairfax, VA:
Frequently Asked Questions
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Written by Jordan Lee, HVAC Technician
Career Analyst
Jordan has 10 years of experience in HVAC systems. He specializes in residential installation and maintenance.
Methodology & Data Source
Salary figures on this page are 2026 projections based on the Bureau of Labor Statistics Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics (OEWS) survey, May 2026 release. The BLS reported a median annual salary of $53,629 for heating, air conditioning, and refrigeration mechanics and installersin the Fairfax metropolitan area. A 3.82% compound annual growth rate (CAGR), calculated from 6-year national BLS wage trends, was applied to project current 2026 compensation. Percentile ranges (P10–P90) represent the full salary distribution across experience levels and practice settings in this market.
Data Sources & Methodology
Salary data for Fairfax is estimated from official BLS state-level occupational wage data (2025), adjusted for regional cost-of-living differences using BEA RPP (Regional Price Parities).
2026 figures are projected from 2025 BLS data using a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.82%, derived from historical BLS wage trends for heating, air conditioning, and refrigeration mechanic and installers (SOC 49-9021).
Compiled and verified by Jordan Lee, HVAC Technician, a licensed heating, air conditioning, and refrigeration mechanic and installer with 10+ years of clinical experience. · View source data at BLS.gov