Heating, Air Conditioning, and Refrigeration Mechanic and Installer Salary in St. Paul, MN: $75,661 (2026)
Quick Answer:A full-time heating, air conditioning, and refrigeration mechanic and installer in St. Paul, MN earns a median $75,661/year (≈ $36.38/hour) in nominal terms for 2026 — projected from BLS OEWS 2025 (SOC 49-9021). Once you factor in St. Paul's price level (1% below national, BEA RPP 98.5), that paycheck buys what $76,813 would nationally. Nominal pay sits 0.1% above the Minnesota state average.
Based on BLS state-level estimates · View source
In St. Paul, Minnesota, the projected median annual salary for heating, air conditioning, and refrigeration mechanics and installers stands at $75,661 for 2026. This figure reflects a competitive compensation package that is 25.74% above the national median of $60,174. Salaries in the local market can range from $48,995 at the 10th percentile to as high as $117,274 at the 90th percentile, providing a broad spectrum of earning potential. These estimates are derived from 2025 BLS OEWS data, adjusted for regional cost variances, setting a strong backdrop for professionals considering their career steps in this city. With rising demand, particularly in the residential sector, St. Paul's job market reveals opportunities for those engaged in commissioning and spiffs, which can enhance earnings through sales-driven incentives.
About the St. Paul Market
Salary estimated from Minnesota average ($66,000) adjusted for local cost of living.
Salary Breakdown
| Percentile | Annual | Hourly |
|---|---|---|
| Entry Level (P10) | $48,995 | $23.56 |
| Lower Range (P25) | $59,502 | $28.60 |
| Median (P50)(typical) | $75,661 | $36.38 |
| Upper Range (P75) | $95,620 | $45.97 |
| Top Earners (P90) | $117,274 | $56.38 |
Median Salary Position
25.74% above the national average
2026 Salary Percentile Distribution in St. Paul
In St. Paul, MN, the heating, air conditioning, and refrigeration mechanic and installer salary spread from the 10th to 90th percentile is $68,279 (2026 est.). At $75,661, the local median is 25.74% above the national median of $60,174.
Salary Calculator
At 40 hours/week in St. Paul: You'd be in the lower-middle range
How St. Paul Heating, Air Conditioning, and Refrigeration Mechanic and Installer Pay Compares
St. Paul median: $75,661/year (2026)
| Compared To | Median Salary | St. Paul Pays |
|---|---|---|
| Minnesota Average | $75,585 | +0.10% more |
| National Average | $60,174 | +25.74% more |
Heating, Air Conditioning, and Refrigeration Mechanic and Installers in St. Paul, MN earn a median of $75,661 per year (2026 est.), which is 25.74% higher than the national median of $60,174 and 0.10% above the Minnesota state average of $75,585.
Cost-of-Living Adjusted Salary
St. Paul has a cost of living 1.50% below the national average, meaning your salary goes further here.
Adjusted salary = nominal × (100 / CoL index). CoL index: 100 = national average.
St. Paul, MN has a cost-of-living index of 98.5 (below the national average of 100). A heating, air conditioning, and refrigeration mechanic and installer earning $75,661 nominally has purchasing power equivalent to $76,813 in an average-cost city — an effective 1.52% boost.
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2019 BLS Actual
$58,208
2025 BLS Actual
$72,877
2026 Current Est.
$75,661
2019–2027 Growth
+34.9%
Salary Trajectory for Heating, Air Conditioning, and Refrigeration Mechanics and Installers in St. Paul (2019–2027)
2019–2025: actual BLS OEWS data for this metro area. 2026+: CAGR 3.82% projection.
| Year | Annual Salary | Status |
|---|---|---|
| 2019 | $58,208 | Actual |
| 2020 | $60,430 | Actual |
| 2021 | $58,089 | Actual |
| 2022 | $61,386 | Actual |
| 2023 | $68,445 | Actual |
| 2024 | $67,575 | Actual |
| 2025 | $72,877 | Actual |
| 2026(current) | $75,661 | Estimated |
| 2027 | $78,551 | Projected |
Based on 7 years of BLS OEWS data for the St. Paul metropolitan area, the median heating, air conditioning, and refrigeration mechanic and installer salary grew 25.2% from $58,208 (2019) to $72,877 (2025). At a 3.82% compound annual growth rate, salaries are projected to reach $78,551 by 2027 — a total increase of $20,343 (34.95%) from 2019.
Note: Historical values (2019–2025) are actual BLS OEWS figures for the St. Paul metropolitan area, sourced from annual Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics surveys. 2026–2026 figures are current estimates, and 2027 values are projections, calculated using a 3.82% CAGR derived from 7-year BLS historical data. Actual salaries may vary based on employer, experience, certifications, and local market conditions.
Salary by Experience Level
| Experience | Estimated Salary Range |
|---|---|
| 0-2 years (New Graduate) | $48,995 – $59,502 |
| 3-5 years (Mid Career) | $59,502 – $75,661 |
| 5+ years (Experienced) | $75,661 – $95,620 |
| 10+ years (Top Earner) | $95,620 – $117,274 |
HACR salary ranges estimated from BLS percentile data. Individual heating, air conditioning, and refrigeration mechanic and installer compensation varies by employer, certifications, and specialization.
Heating, Air Conditioning, and Refrigeration Mechanic and Installer Job Market in St. Paul
The local employment landscape shows that there are approximately 80 heating, air conditioning, and refrigeration mechanics and installers actively working in St. Paul. The cost of living index sits at 98.5, indicating that while salaries are relatively attractive, they must also account for local economic conditions, impacting take-home pay. Among the best-paying employers in St. Paul are residential service companies like Carrier dealers and Trane Comfort Specialists, offering strong commission structures that can significantly boost earnings. Conversely, commercial HVAC roles in data centers tend to provide salaries with more stability but potentially lower variable pay. Factors such as specialization in data center cooling solutions, the demand for heat pumps supported by the IRA tax credit, and the need for state contractor licenses can create pay disparities. For technicians looking to maximize their earning potential in St. Paul, pursuing certifications like NATE, maintaining a versatile skill set, and considering residential service roles can prove advantageous in this evolving market.
More salary data for St. Paul, MN:
Frequently Asked Questions
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Written by Jordan Lee, HVAC Technician
Career Analyst
Jordan has 10 years of experience in HVAC systems. He specializes in residential installation and maintenance.
Methodology & Data Source
Salary figures on this page are 2026 projections based on the Bureau of Labor Statistics Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics (OEWS) survey, May 2026 release. The BLS reported a median annual salary of $72,877 for heating, air conditioning, and refrigeration mechanics and installersin the St. Paul metropolitan area. A 3.82% compound annual growth rate (CAGR), calculated from 6-year national BLS wage trends, was applied to project current 2026 compensation. Percentile ranges (P10–P90) represent the full salary distribution across experience levels and practice settings in this market.
Data Sources & Methodology
Salary data for St. Paul is estimated from official BLS state-level occupational wage data (2025), adjusted for regional cost-of-living differences using BEA RPP (Regional Price Parities).
2026 figures are projected from 2025 BLS data using a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.82%, derived from historical BLS wage trends for heating, air conditioning, and refrigeration mechanic and installers (SOC 49-9021).
Compiled and verified by Jordan Lee, HVAC Technician, a licensed heating, air conditioning, and refrigeration mechanic and installer with 10+ years of clinical experience. · View source data at BLS.gov